Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 121,383
2 South Dakota 112,092
3 Wisconsin 89,384
4 Iowa 89,288
5 Nebraska 86,397
6 Utah 86,280
7 Tennessee 83,843
8 Rhode Island 83,020
9 Idaho 79,117
10 Kansas 77,387
11 Wyoming 76,731
12 Montana 76,443
13 Indiana 76,416
14 Illinois 76,219
15 Arkansas 74,603
16 Alabama 73,671
17 Minnesota 73,650
18 Oklahoma 73,524
19 Nevada 73,106
20 Mississippi 72,513
21 Arizona 71,967
22 Missouri 68,261
23 New Mexico 68,149
24 Louisiana 67,818
25 Alaska 63,892
26 Florida 61,612
27 Texas 61,117
28 Georgia 60,661
29 Kentucky 60,171
30 Ohio 59,917
31 South Carolina 59,725
32 Delaware 59,004
33 California 58,404
34 Colorado 58,273
35 Massachusetts 54,432
36 New Jersey 53,971
37 Michigan 52,789
38 Connecticut 52,087
39 North Carolina 51,589
40 Pennsylvania 50,465
41 New York 50,327
42 West Virginia 47,615
43 Maryland 45,790
44 District of Columbia 41,067
45 Virginia 40,956
46 Puerto Rico 34,413
47 Washington 32,970
48 New Hampshire 32,380
49 Oregon 27,011
50 Maine 18,003
51 Hawaii 15,156
52 Vermont 11,878

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 1,056
2 Utah 1,042
3 Tennessee 965
4 Arkansas 951
5 Georgia 921
6 Alabama 906
7 Massachusetts 882
8 Arizona 879
9 Mississippi 864
10 California 833
11 Indiana 752
12 Rhode Island 738
13 Idaho 734
14 Kansas 727
15 West Virginia 725
16 Ohio 722
17 Nevada 704
18 Oklahoma 703
19 Pennsylvania 693
20 New York 691
21 Texas 691
22 Nebraska 677
23 Delaware 673
24 New Mexico 673
25 Florida 669
26 Missouri 638
27 South Carolina 612
28 North Carolina 606
29 Wisconsin 589
30 Kentucky 583
31 New Hampshire 578
32 South Dakota 567
33 Illinois 563
34 Iowa 534
35 Virginia 523
36 Montana 505
37 New Jersey 505
38 Alaska 485
39 Maine 466
40 Colorado 424
41 Connecticut 421
42 North Dakota 409
43 Maryland 407
44 Wyoming 406
45 Washington 329
46 Minnesota 305
47 District of Columbia 302
48 Oregon 286
49 Puerto Rico 274
50 Michigan 263
51 Vermont 155
52 Hawaii 82

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,143
2 New York 1,930
3 Massachusetts 1,802
4 North Dakota 1,704
5 South Dakota 1,682
6 Connecticut 1,681
7 Rhode Island 1,677
8 Louisiana 1,610
9 Mississippi 1,608
10 Illinois 1,418
11 Michigan 1,302
12 Pennsylvania 1,251
13 Iowa 1,233
14 Indiana 1,227
15 Arizona 1,219
16 Arkansas 1,218
17 New Mexico 1,182
18 District of Columbia 1,113
19 South Carolina 1,028
20 Nevada 1,018
21 Florida 1,009
22 Tennessee 1,002
23 Georgia 997
24 Alabama 984
25 Maryland 975
26 Texas 970
27 Missouri 959
28 Minnesota 954
29 Delaware 950
30 Kansas 940
31 Montana 900
32 Wisconsin 900
33 Nebraska 867
34 Colorado 847
35 Idaho 804
36 Ohio 766
37 Wyoming 756
38 West Virginia 746
39 Kentucky 661
40 California 657
41 North Carolina 649
42 Oklahoma 629
43 Virginia 589
44 New Hampshire 558
45 Puerto Rico 470
46 Washington 462
47 Utah 396
48 Oregon 352
49 Alaska 270
50 Maine 258
51 Vermont 217
52 Hawaii 201

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Pennsylvania 23
2 Kansas 22
3 Wyoming 19
4 Arizona 18
5 Indiana 18
6 Mississippi 17
7 Nevada 17
8 Arkansas 15
9 Iowa 15
10 New Mexico 15
11 South Dakota 15
12 Tennessee 15
13 New Jersey 14
14 Illinois 13
15 West Virginia 13
16 California 12
17 Massachusetts 12
18 Missouri 11
19 Nebraska 11
20 Ohio 11
21 Rhode Island 11
22 Colorado 10
23 Idaho 10
24 Louisiana 10
25 Montana 10
26 New Hampshire 10
27 Texas 10
28 Wisconsin 10
29 Delaware 9
30 Minnesota 9
31 North Dakota 9
32 Washington 9
33 Connecticut 8
34 Maryland 8
35 Michigan 8
36 Oklahoma 8
37 Alabama 7
38 District of Columbia 7
39 Georgia 7
40 New York 7
41 South Carolina 7
42 Kentucky 6
43 North Carolina 6
44 Virginia 6
45 Florida 5
46 Maine 5
47 Puerto Rico 4
48 Utah 4
49 Oregon 3
50 Vermont 3
51 Alaska 2
52 Hawaii 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 271,737 1 99
Norton Kansas 219,922 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 216,523 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 214,358 4 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 214,027 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 99,132 311 90
Richland South Carolina 63,364 1602 49
York South Carolina 54,125 2058 34
Orange California 52,334 2141 31
Pierce Washington 30,520 2831 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,587 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,452 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 3 99
Gregory South Dakota 6,213 4 99
Foster North Dakota 5,919 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 821 1815 42
Richland South Carolina 806 1840 41
York South Carolina 641 2131 32
Orange California 590 2216 29
Pierce Washington 385 2579 17

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons